Why is AMD up today?

There is a lot of comments in the message boards today on why AMD is up. Explanations are diverse, but most people seem to think that it's due to the market interpretation of Intel's quarterly results announced yesterday. But I have a different opinion.

I think that what we are seeing today is not related to Intel's report and it has everything to do with IDF. I see today as a relief rally. Relief that there is nothing really groundbreaking coming out of IDF and hints that Penryn will be on par with Barcelona. Relief that AMD will become competitive with Intel once again by the end of the year.

If you have been following AMD stock for some time now, you will remember that it was just a year ago, at IDF, that AMD started its decline. And this was mainly due to Conroe. Despite the disappointing earnings that Intel had in the first quarter of last year, AMD's stock did not benefit. It did not even benefit from it's good results and instead anticipation of the competitive thread prevailed.

I think what we are seeing today is a similar, albeit not as dramatic. Com ming out of IDF there are no Conroe type demos showing Penryn demolishing benchmarks. Instead we hear 15% performance improvement in most tasks and 40-45% in specific benchmarks, which coincidentally matches what AMD is saying about Barcelona.

• http://www.legitreviews.com/article/488/2/
• http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSPEK36329920070417
  

So my take: relief rally.